Is the end near for the RIAA?

I believe the recording industry, as we know it, is dieing. It is dieing because they refuse to change with the times. Like the old horse and buggy whip makers, they are in a line of business which is fading away. I also feel the recording artists are also clinging on to an old and outdated model and must either move-on, or move over.

Why is the RIAA so hot about this? They are hot because they know the end is near. There is no longer a need for the recording industry anymore because of low-cost technology and the Internet. Just about any artist can produce high-quality content. With digital players, there is no need to mass-produce CDs or cassettes. Web sites, like MySpace and YouTube, reduce the need for distribution.

Artists need to realize they will have to work for their money and earn a living off of concerts and selling their brand-name (t-shirts, commercials, sound tracks, video games, etc.).

Now, how many whip makers are there today? In ten years, the recording industry will be the same way. Those who roll with the changes will be successful and make money; those who resist will eventually perish.

For the consumer, this will user in a new era of quality because people will be buying songs they like; not whole albums having one good song and nine crappy tracks of filler.

As a technologist, I have been laughing at the RIAA for years now because they refuse to see the writing on the wall. When I downloaded my first MP3 song in the late-80s, I new the game was changing – and it amazes me to see it has taken the recording industry this long.

What do you think?

Technology Predictions for 2008

As many writers who concentrate on information technology will do at the end of the year; I, too, will prognosticate on what will be hot for 2008. In no particular order, here are ten of my predictions.

1) Bandwidth changes will be coming. It would be easy to leave it at that, but I think the United States is on the verge of some major changes to the bandwidth infrastructure. I believe the largest change will have to do with the price per speed. Either the price will go down, with little change in speed; or, price will remain about the same and we will get more speed for our bucks. This will be driven by wireless broadband and the fiber to the curb.

2) Increasing availability for wireless Internet access. Verizon and AT&T will step up their offerings for WiFi Internet access. This will add significant competition to Cable TV internet access. The result will be more competitive pricing and packages for consumers. This competition will do more for innovation than Net Neutraility.

3) Fiber to the curb will be more of an option for consumers. Our thirst for bandwidth and regulations on copper will be driving factors in the telecommunication companies offering fiber to the pole (or curb) for consumer access.

4) Google will become a telecommunication infrastructure company. Google will bid, and win, the 700MHz spectrum bid and will become a telecommunication company. They will probably team up with an existing wireless company and merge their infrastructures with Google’s “Dark Fiber” network. The gPhone will be a part of this.

5) Microsoft will dominate the mobile application space. This will be a short-win because stiff competition with Google’s Android offering. Apple will have the IPhone, Google will have the GPhone, and Microsoft will have Windows Mobile 6 and the legion of .net developers. People will like the “Eye Candy” from Apple and the “Open’ness” of Android; however, the easy of .netcf and the corporate-adoption of Mobile 6 will prevail – for 2008.

6) Apple will continue on their world domination fight in the consumer electronics space. Look for a few more iPhone announcements and the eventual merging of iPod and iPhone. Apple will also move into the video distribution game, utilizing some “iMediaDevice” and Apple TV.

7) Botnets will move from the “Hacker” world to the “Corporate” world and the legitimate use of this parallel system will take root. The business world will not know how to do this. Perhaps the emergence of a “Corporate IntraBotNet” system will spring up. Hummmmm.

8) Corporate VoIP will be the next killer application. Microsoft will take the lead in providing the merging of Telephone, IM, and Email. We will see more “Headsets” on desks and slow decrease in telephones. 2008 will mark the year the traditional desk phone starts to go extinct.

9) Ajax and Silverlight will weigh heavy on the minds of developers. Maybe 2008 will see a possible solution to the desire to have “Disconnected Web Applications.”

10) Sun will make another stab at re-branding Java. Renewed interest in the Java Applet will be fueled by the legions of Java developers already familiar with programming, but want something better than Ajax and Silverlight. Applets may be a possible answer to “Disconnected Web Applications.”

Those are mine... what do you predict for 2008?

Google expected to bid on 700MHz

Wireless IT World has recently published an article which sheds some more light onto the conundrum of Google’s interest in the 700 MHz spectrum.
Link

This paragraph is of interest to me...

“Google has also supported efforts to push Congress to pass net neutrality requirements, which would prohibit broadband providers from blocking or slowing Web content not approved by them. Google's interest in the spectrum came after AT&T and other large broadband providers expressed interest in recent years in getting Web-based businesses to pay more for their customers' use of the broadband networks.”

This whole net neutrality topic stems from the players in the communication industry who see the potential loss of revenue due to VoIP (Voice over IP) and the increase in bandwidth demand as multimedia (i.e. You Tube) become more prevalent.

It is my belief Google may, in part, use the spectrum as a way to circumvent the traditional telecos by offering their own service to the Internet. This would practically guarantee neutrality on the Internet – providing you went with Google to get access to the net.

In the past, Google has been reported to buy unused fiber optic networks. All that would be missing from the GoogleNet would be access points; which is still something missing from the big picture. Will they team up with some existing provider (i.e. Sprint), or will Google start setting up their own towers? The 700MHz would require fewer towers and cover larger areas than traditional cell phone service.

Add to this, all of the talk about the Google Phone (gPhone) and it makes for some interesting possibilities.

More Google Phone Services

If Goog411 and the talk of a GPhone were not enough, now comes GrandCentral. GrandCentral is a company who’s purpose is to create a single contact point for people to get in touch with you. When you subscribe to GrandCentral, you will be issued a phone number. This phone number becomes your single contact point.

Here’s how it works…
You keep all of the phone numbers you have, like your home, office, and cell. You tell GrandCentral which phone you are at; for example, you are at the office. When people call your GrandCentral-Issued phone number, the call is redirected to your office phone. Before you leave work, you tell GrandCentral calls should go to your cell phone. Now, when people call your GrandCentral number, calls are directed to your cell phone.

But there is more…
You can set up your account to screen callers, or identify certain calls to be redirected to specific phones. You can even switch calls right in the middle of a call (have the call go from your office phone to your cell phone). The list of features is quite impressive and offers individuals the ability to manage how their phones are used. A very nice feature is that all of your voice mail can be accessed from your web browser; which means it is easy to access from anywhere.

Earlier this year, Google acquired GrandCentral; so, now this is yet another telephone service being offered by Google. How this play into the grand scheme is still to be determined. One thing is for sure, Google is very interested in voice communications.

There is currently a waiting list to receive a GrandCentral account. If interested, you may wish to sign up now, so you are on the waiting list.

Links...
Goog411

GrandCentral

Google Phone service coming soon?

The New York Times published an article about the possibilities of Google entering the wireless phone market. The angle they chose to take was about Google’s GPhone and Apple’s IPhone. While there may be enough speculation to warrant several paragraphs of news, I think the NYT completely missed the target.

I believe Google has very little interest in Apple’s IPhone, other than partnering with them to insure Google’s applications run on the device. I think Google’s eyes are on a much bigger picture, affording them another huge source for advertising revenue. My theory is based on several things Google has been taking an interest in. The first one, other than the GPhone itself, is Google’s interest in the 700MHz band being auctioned off by the FCC. With this in mind, I have very little doubt the GPhone will work in this area of the spectrum.

There are some other things Google has been doing help to bring this all home. For example, have you tried Goog411? If not, visit Http://www.google.com/goog411/. Why would Google be so interested in a telephone 411 application? Well, if you have a mobile phone which can receive Google Maps, Google Information, and (of course) Google Advertisements, then you have a potentially profitable revenue stream.

Taking this to the next level, Google has always had a very strong interest in providing free WiFi to metropolitan areas. While this has proven to be less-than practical to implement, I think Google still would like to see some form of wireless communications which is free to access by the masses. Don’t forget, Google is sitting on a very large network of unused fiber optics. If Google wins the 700MHz spectrum, establishes access points linked by their fiber network, and provides mobile communications with the GPhone, Google will be in a position to collect HUGE truck-loads of money from advertisers.

Scenario :
You use GPhone and Goog411 to call a hardware store. Google sends you a map (to your GPhone via Google Maps). On the map, other advertisers have their stores listed along the route AND Google is sending you additional advertisements related to hardware. Over time, the GPhone will have accumulated certain trends, based on the calls you make, and custom advertisements are sent to your phone – maybe even GPhone-Only coupons to be used at participating retailers.

The question becomes…will people use a GPhone if the service is free, yet requires you to be blasted with advertisements?

Links:
Google411

New York Times Story about the GPhone


(BTW: If you are a Skype user, you can dial Goog411 (for free) and be connected to the business via Google. This is a way to get free Skype-Out calls. At the moment, it only works for calling out to businesses.)

Welcome to Yellowville

This morning I moved into my new cubicale, which is in a different building from where I used to sit. The accomodations here are less than desireable and provides me with a reminder of the down-sides of being a consultant. As a consultant, you are affored all the anemeties a full-time-emplyee would not want. In my case, I am in Yellowville because most employeess would rather not have a cubical in such poor conditions.

Yellowville is what I call it because everything here is yellow. From the florecent fixtures, to the carpiting, to the walls and desktops; everything has a yellow hue. I suspect everything here was brand-spanking-new, back in 1965. The bathroom facilities here are yellow, too, and look worse than a highschool locker room. Yellow is the predominate color and places me in a yellow mood.

Of the ironic things which can be found in Yellowville, there are a few which have immediately stuck out. As a tea drinker, the only flavor being stocked is green tea (blue and YELLOW make green).

Yellow Everywhere.

Belleville Illinois Community

I have created an Orkut community pertaining to the city of Belleville, Illinois. If you are interested in participating in this group, then feel free to sign up. If you have a gmail account, then I believe you should already have an Orkut account.

Q:Why use Orkut when there are many other communities/forums on the Internet?
A:Because Orkut is with Google and it is my hope Google will provide better integration and service than some of the other communities. I am also betting an eventual integration into Google Earth.

Additionally…
Orkut requires a valid account, so this should help reduce the number of bots, spammers, and trolls.

Here is the link:
www.orkut.com